تسعير المخاطر الكلية وتكلفة رأس المال في ليبيا: أثر عدم اليقين الاقتصادي وتقلبات النفط والمخاطر السياسية

Abstract

This study investigates macro risk pricing in Libya by examining how key sources of macroeconomic instability influence the cost of capital. Specifically, it tests the effects of economic uncertainty, oil price volatility, and political risk on the cost of capital, while assessing the mediating role of macroeconomic transmission channels—namely inflation, exchange rate conditions, and liquidity. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical design based on a structured survey using a five-point Likert scale. Data were collected from a sample of 202 economic actors across multiple Libyan cities. Scale reliability and validity were established through Cronbach’s alpha, construct validity tests (KMO and Bartlett), and exploratory factor analysis. Hypotheses were tested using correlation analysis, simple and multiple regression, moderation and mediation models, complemented by diagnostic checks and robustness analyses to ensure the stability of estimates.

The findings provide strong evidence of a positive and statistically significant effect of economic uncertainty, oil price volatility, and political risk on the cost of capital. Economic uncertainty emerges as the most influential determinant, followed by political risk and oil volatility. Moreover, inflation, exchange rate pressures, and liquidity constraints act as a partial mediating mechanism: once the mediating index is introduced, the coefficients of the main predictors decline while remaining significant, indicating that a substantial portion of higher financing costs is transmitted through macroeconomic channels. In contrast, moderation results show no significant interaction effects between political risk and either economic uncertainty or oil volatility, suggesting that political risk operates primarily through a direct channel rather than amplifying other shocks. Overall, the study concludes that reducing Libya’s cost of capital requires policies that enhance economic-policy predictability, strengthen the institutional environment, and improve macro-financial management of inflation, exchange rate dynamics, and liquidity. The study contributes by offering an integrated framework tailored to a fragile, rentier economy and by highlighting the channels through which macro shocks translate into financing costs